NIFTY Analysis for 23 July 2019

  • The week started with a negative open of Nifty with getting to -100 within first hour of trading.
  • This was then followed by consolidation at lower levels and we saw some short covering as Nifty traced back upto 11380 levels during trading session.
  • Overall, if we observe there was consent of market around our previous analysis where we predicted that 11300 level won’t be broken easily.
  • From market data perspective, FII were still in selling mode in cash but their sell numbers were out-performed by DII buying.
  • Adding to this, Reliance which is big contributor to the index, also gained 2.33% and went from low levels of 1227 to 1280 during the day.
  • Below are the FII numbers to consider:

    Equity : -1916.61 Crore
    Index Future : -1,086.12 Crore

    Index Option : 559.11 Crore
    Stock Future : 717.92 Crore

    Stock Option : -5.15 Crore

  • So overall, FII numbers aren’t very positive and this can be linked with the taxation changes announced in budget.
  • Overall, the width of market is not looking very positive or promising.
  • Today, Reliance was able to save the index to an extent.
  • Since HDFC and HDFCBANK both are going down as FII are reducing their stake, index will not recover unless their trend changes.
  • From an expiry perspective, I think 11300 won’t be broken atleast tomorrow as heavy writing was seen on this level.
  • Similarly 11400 would be an immediate resistive zone from option data analysis.
  • Overall, I would expect market to try and break 11400 tomorrow.
  • So it would be a good bet to go positive at around 11300 level with a strict stoploss of around 11275 level for a good 100-150 points rally.
  • One can start booking profits in long at around 11380 level and if 11400 is broken on upper side, 11450 will seen in matter of few minutes.

Ankit Maheshwari

Ankit is an avid writer with experience of working Investment Banking domain for over 7 years. He has been tracking Indian markets for over 10 years now for educational and learning purpose.

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